Why Ukraine's renunciation of the world's third largest nuclear arsenal?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reignited fears of a nuclear attack across Europe. During the Cold War, Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power on the planet.

In 1991, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, this new independent nation would inherit approximately 3,000 nuclear weapons that Moscow left on its territory.

However, Ukraine has been denuclearized for three decades.

The issue shines again after Russia began a military invasion on February 24, with Vladimir Putin leading the threats to react in the event of intervention in the confrontation by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Memorandum Budapest

Ukraine decided to give up the nuclear weapons that were on its territory in 1990, in exchange for recognition as an independent country and security.

This agreement signed by the government of Ukraine, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom, after the end of the Soviet Union, was reflected in the Budapest Memorandum.

In 1994, in the Hungarian capital, a document was signed detailing that Ukraine is committed to adhering to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and thus would proceed to return to Moscow those that were left on its territory.

In an interview offered for the BBC, the political scientist and researcher at the Asian Studies Laboratory of the University of São Paulo, Vicente Ferraro Jr., declared that due to the end of the Soviet Union, part of the Soviet nuclear weapons remained in European countries of East.

For this reason, in the West there was concern about their misuse or loss, which would put the whole Europe at risk, added Ferraro.

For the Ukrainian government, this concession was extremely important, because the country only had definitive independence in 1991 and was still fighting for international recognition, after the Soviet era.

Kiev handed over all its Soviet weapons in 1996. The conditions agreed upon by Ukraine were also signed by Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Invasions in Ukraine

Ukraine considered the invasion and annexation of Crimea as a first violation of the signed treaty. This region located in the east of the country, is home to the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian naval base in Sevastopol.

Ukraine also alleges that that same year, the conditions of understanding were violated when the Kremlin decided to support the separatists who were in charge of leading rebellions in Lugansk and Donetsk, on the border of its territory.

This conflict has resulted in 14,000 deaths.

At the beginning of 2022, the threat of the Russian invasion of the Ukrainian territory was patented. For this reason, President Volodimir Zelensky invoked the Budapest Memorandum again, without having time to carry out consultations.

On February 24, the Russian invasion began, in which the Ukrainian military infrastructure was attacked around the country, with convoys arriving from different directions.

President Vladimir Putin decided to use the words of Volodimir Zelensky's last speech, on the Memorandum, to justify his actions.

Putin assured in his speech that Ukraine abandoned the pact in order to generate a nuclear arsenal, supported by the United States.

From the perspective of the Russian president, this country was coordinating aggressive actions and therefore represented a greater risk to the population of Russia.

Alexander Lanoszka, an expert in nuclear security and professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo, Canada, assured that Vladimir Putin made false statements, since there is no interest on the part of the European Union to arm Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

On February 19, Volodimir Zelensky, President of Ukraine, said in his speech that Ukraine had received protection guarantees after abandoning the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. In this way he showed that they do not have these weapons and they are not safe either.

He added in the statement that Ukraine has tried since 2014 to convene consultations with the states that signed the Budapest Memorandum, and in all three attempts there was no response. The Ukrainian people would do it for a fourth time, and it could be the last.

Denuclearization of Ukraine

Members of the political elite of Ukraine and experts in international politics, before the approval of the Budapest Memorandum, discussed the possibility of violation of this agreement by any of the signatories.

The former military commander chosen for the Ukrainian Parliament, Volodymyr Tolubko, in 1992, expressed in a session of the Legislature that the idea of the complete denuclearization of Ukraine, in exchange for a promise of security, was “romantic and premature”.

Tolubko considered that the country should keep even some of the Soviet sheep, since they could serve to deter aggressors.

This debate resurfaced with the Russian invasion, as political analysts and government officials argue that the Ukrainian country could have prevented the incursion if it had had nuclear weapons.

Risks of nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons expert Aleksander Lanoszka believes that the arguments used by Ukraine's elite make no sense, since Kiev has never held control of the weapons that have been on its territory since World War II.

He assured that Ukraine only had physical control of the weapons, but not the operational one, since the access codes and details to use them were not known.

The professor of international politics at the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom, Andrew Futter, considers that the weapons in Kiev would have been a risk in the future.

Although Ukraine has a nuclear power industry, working to turn it into a nuclear weapons program would come at significant political and financial cost.

Possibility of a nuclear confrontation

The invasion of the Russian military force in Ukraine has generated fears of a nuclear confrontation throughout Europe, despite the fact that Kiev is denuclearized.

In speeches, Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he will respond aggressively if the US-led military alliance, NATO members or European powers decide to intervene in this confrontation.

Also, Russia's deterrent forces are on special alert.

The president, in a conversation with a group of military officials, reported that major world powers have been conducting "hostile actions" against Russia and have issued illegitimate sanctions. This does not mean that there is any real intention to use alertness.

Specialist opinions

Different experts in nuclear security and politics assure that there is no reason to panic at this time. NATO Secretary General Jean Stoltenberg said they have no troops in Ukraine and no plans to send any.

Stoltenberg assured that Vladimir Putin's announcement regarding the "special alert" is irresponsible and dangerous. The government of the European Union and the United States expressed a similar position.

The military alliance only considers a military intervention necessary if there is a threat from Russia against one of its members. Article 5 of NATO indicates that the organization is obliged to defend any member that has been attacked.

However, the countries of the so-called Warsaw Pact, such as Romania, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, are being attacked.

It is important to note that the Warsaw Pact is an extinct alliance of communist countries as a military counterweight to NATO, created by the Soviet Union.

Lanoszka referred to Putin's statements and stated that the President indicated that, in the face of any external interference in this situation, he would generate a strong response. Which ensures a nuclear threat, between the lines.

The researcher specializing in strategic weapons and Russian security and defense policy and director of the South American Institute of Policy and Strategy (Isape), Larlecianne Piccolli, indicated on her social networks that the increased alert by Vladimir Putin is aimed at the main thing is to intimidate Ukraine and thus bring it to the negotiating table, which is already happening.