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3:55
They control cases of covid-19 in the United States
The figures known for infections in the United States of Covid-19 have remained stagnant according to reports, this compared to the winter figures.
Before that, the North American country had a rebound of 40,000 cases a day and more than 400 hospitalizations and deaths daily. However, given this pause, experts do not know how the virus may behave in the coming months.
Dr. Eric Topol, faced with the unknown, has mentioned: “All this remains a mystery. We've never really figured this out: why do these waves go up and down, how long do they stay and how fast do they slow down."
Since the last week of July, the predominant variant has been BA.5, which has manifested itself in all the cases reported in hospitals.
This variant is derived from the omicron and according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), this was the one that predominated in 87% of the population the first week of August.
With these figures it can be clearly seen that, for now, there is no variant that exceeds it. This results in doctors and experts thinking about what future strains will be like in terms of level of spread.
Dr. Eric Topol, for his part, maintains comments on this strain that "it has been formidable because it is highly transmissible and has a lot of immune evasion."
He also considers that the pause that the virus presents is because it has probably already reached most of the hosts that it can infect. “Right now, the question is what will come when BA.5. descend. It could take weeks," Topol continued.
Forecasts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reveal a marked improvement in the rate of hospitalizations and deaths. This could indicate that the strongest wave is already ending, according to experts.
The epidemiologist and associate professor at the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University, William Hanage, explains that the virus still has high numbers because it continues to find people whose immunity has decreased either due to vaccination or previous infection.
However, other experts comment that it is unknown how long the wave will last, since the return to school and the change of season will be added in the coming months.
If the contagion decreases, seasonality will make it rebound. “I would expect things to go down for at least the next month or so,” were the words of Trevor Bedford, an epidemiologist and genome scientist at the University of Washington School of Public Health.
For his part, Hanage adds that the alpha, delta and omicron variants are like cousins and not daughters, which is why they have so much disparity between them. Instead, this year there have been a few variants (from BA.2 to BA.2.12.1 to BA.5), all within omicron.
If the new strain that comes is different from these variants, we would be talking about something very different from what has been happening this year within omicron, said Hanage and, in addition, he assured that it is not impossible, therefore, the experts are still attentive to the virus behavior.
“Omicron mutations aren't necessarily a concern, but if it keeps growing, it means it has a head start. The more it increases, the more we have to worry about it, "explained Dr. Eric Topol.
According to the genetic sequencing company Helix, BA.2.75, also a variant of the omicron, has not been the point of study, since it represents 3% of the cases for the United States and 1% for the CDC.
However, experts see her as more dangerous because of some genetic changes that she carries within herself. It is believed that it may present changes in its transmissibility.
Thinking about the years to come, Hanage insists that “we are probably going to take one step forward, two steps back. So those are the numbers that we have right now, at a point where things are relatively good. This is something that I think many people do not understand”, this referring to what is known about the Covid-19 virus.
