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COVID 2019: Is the end of the pandemic near?
The COVID-19 pandemic is in its third year of consolidation. After the discovery of the new coronavirus, much has changed for humanity as a result of this health inconvenience.
However, the emergence of unified criteria in treatment and therapies, vaccination, among other measures, generate a glimmer of hope. Is the end of the pandemic near?
Update on the COVID 2019 pandemic
COVID-19 is the acronym in English for coronavirus disease 2019 and was declared a pandemic in March 2020. At that time, it was the World Health Organization (WHO) who made the announcement.
It is a respiratory pathology that has infected more than 400 million people in the world. In turn, it claimed the lives of more than 5 million people internationally.
Similarly, the planet witnessed the appearance of variants of the coronavirus: Alpha, Delta, Gamma and Omicron among the most outstanding as such.
The Omicron variant
Especially Ómicron is generating a new wave of infections with a peak ten times higher than the last seen in 2021. Specialized studies such as the one of the IHME ( Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ) ensure that the variant is having an accelerated and infectious behavior.
According to the research, it is expected that more than 50% of the world population will get sick from Omicron by March 2022. An alarming figure, but whose risk of serious or fatal complications has been reduced exponentially.
However, the higher increase in cases symbolizes adversity in the hospital field. Over time, hospitalizations or admissions for COVID-19 will once again overwhelm major health centers.
Paradoxically, it is a scenario that many scientists categorize as favorable. The rapid exposure to the virus plus the efficiency of the immunization campaigns suggest the approach towards the end of the pandemic. But is this hypothesis really true?
Statement by Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, President of the WHO
The president of the World Health Organization (WHO) is not exactly known for giving good news. From the beginning of the pandemic picture, he was always in favor of frankness and realism around the situation.
Even so, he recently acknowledged that 2022 could be the end of the acute phase for the disease. Speaking at a meeting of the WHO executive committee, he stressed that humanity enjoys a unique opportunity. To get or take advantage of it, you will need a series of conditions.
In the first instance, it will be necessary to specify the so-called herd immunity. For this, an approximate 60 to 70 percent of humanity must be treated with the vaccine effectively.
At the same time, international collaboration in the field of the vaccination process will be key. Tedros Adhanom comments on the great monopoly that powerful nations have set up around the issue, preventing the procedure from advancing towards third world countries.
Third, it is important to emphasize that the third dose of the immunization schedule is ONLY applicable in certain cases. Until now, those over 60 years of age, immunosuppressed patients or patients with underlying pathologies are those who qualify for it.
Avoid falling into the passivity of biosecurity measures, as was experienced in the holiday season. The WHO president stressed that they are still essential to reduce the chances of contagion.
If these four pillars or aspects are fully met, by the end of 2022 the pandemic will be history in its acute phase. Even so, the final decision will fall on the shoulders of the world's top leaders and how they adjust their health policies.
Possible end of the pandemic in Europe?
Europe experienced dark hours with the sixth wave of infections due to the spread of Omicron. In particular, a new atmosphere of uncertainty covered the continent.
Given this, the regional director of the WHO, Hans Kluge, declared at the end of January a clear horizon for Europeans. He stressed that the success of immunization acquired through vaccines and the paradoxical effect of Ómicron have been transcendental.
“It is a ceasefire that will bring us a more lasting peace. It will also represent the beginning of a long period of tranquility.” Kluge commented.
The manager clarifies that more than 60% of European inhabitants will be infected by Ómicron in the first quarter of the year. Therefore, the sum of active and passive immunity will contribute to achieving the objective of strengthening and immune siege in the region.
At the same time, he was optimistic about the future, as they are now more confident and knowledgeable. You know how to tackle a new variant, no matter how virulent or contagious it is like Omicron.
Prudence is the final message
Hans Kluge calls for caution as a final conclusion about the possible end of the pandemic. Such optimistic messages can unleash public fury, relaxing biosecurity measures.
Although it is true that vaccines, infections or contagions plus the seasonality of the virus are favorable, victory cannot be claimed.
The new coronavirus exhibits erratic behavior and it is difficult to predict exactly how much it can mutate in favor of its genetic evolution.
No matter how prepared they are, it is convenient to continue advancing in the matter to discover more about the virus.
The truth of the matter is that there is enough sustainable evidence to support the end of the pandemic in 2022. Regardless of the call for calm, we are closer to the goal. For now, we will have to continue waiting for the final results of the mass vaccination.
